The evolution of Turkiye’s ambitions in the wider Mediterranean and its possible effects on Italy

Türkiye’s agenda in the wider Mediterranean has been experiencing unprecedented de-escalation with historical competitors since 2021. Recently, from the MENA to the Caucasus, from Israel and Greece to the Arab Gulf, Ankara’s strategic and national interest has been matching with rapprochement processes and regional stability. Its role as mediator in the war in Ukraine has also helped Türkiye regaining credibility at the Western eyes, undermined in recent years by several issues linked to both Ankara’s domestic governance and foreign policy. Meanwhile Türkiye has retained close relations with Moscow. Although it is unclear whether this balancing act can be sustainable in the longer term, Ankara’s normalization stance is overall aimed at paying off in terms of diplomacy, trade, and economy. This could mark a new course both for the country strained by internal economic crisis and the whole region, opening for new margins of opportunities also to the EU and Italy.