Iranian Soft-Power and Its Proxy Network in a Changing Regional Order:External Reach and Domestic Constraint

The Brief by Francesco Di Bella analyses Iran’s evolving strategy of influence through its proxy network and soft-power instruments in the post–7 October regional landscape. It highlights a structural paradox at the core of Tehran’s model: while the decentralised “Axis of Resistance” provides strategic depth, deterrence and plausible deniability, it also limits central control and exposes Iran to reputational and escalation risks.

The paper situates this external posture within a context of mounting domestic fragility, marked by renewed protest cycles, economic strain and declining legitimacy. In an increasingly multipolar environment, including pragmatic ties with Russia and renewed U.S. pressure, Iran’s approach appears less expansionist than adaptive, aimed at preserving strategic influence rather than transforming the regional order.