Public Opinion, Technical Advancements, and Enlargement Dynamics in the Western Balkan Six: A comparative Analysis

Public opinion’s support is a crucial factor when it comes to policies’ implementation and sustainability. This article by Filippo Marinoni analyses public opinion in the Western Balkan (WB) countries towards the European Union (EU). After assessing the state of play of the negotiation process between the EU and the six WB entities through the analysis of the 2025 “Enlargement Package”, WB public attitudes vis-à-vis the EU are examined both synchronically and diachronically, drawing on two questions from the 2025 Balkan Barometer:

Q17 – “Would you say that your ECONOMY will become a member of the EU?”

Q15 – “Do you think that EU membership of your ECONOMY would be good, neither good nor bad, or bad?”

The findings reveal increasing public optimism towards accession and towards the benefits it would bring to the respondents’ countries in 2025.

This latest development contrasts with the trend of recent years, during which distrust towards the EU had been mounting. Credit for this renewed enthusiasm should be given to the narrative promoted by the European Commission regarding the current window of opportunity for enlargement, driven by geopolitical imperatives. Nonetheless, the EU must now deliver on its promises to (gradually) integrate the WB region by balancing geopolitical necessity with a merit-based approach, without allowing for dangerous shortcuts. The EU should also assume the role of a problem solver within the region’s complexity, actively engaging in dispute resolution, being vocal in its support for democracy, and regaining the transformative role it once had.