Bosnia and Herzegovina: towards a fragmentation of the country?

17 April 2022

The article analyzes the causes of the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the escalation of the nationalist leader of the Republika Srpska (RS) Milorad Dodik’s secessionist pressures, which could lead to an escalation of tension that could threaten the integrity of the country. The article traces the stages of the growing tension: from the scandal of non-papers in April 2021 about the possibility of a peaceful dismemberment of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the celebration, on 9 January 2022, of the 30 years of the RS, event deemed unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The article proposes three different scenarios on the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina and analyzes the role that the international community and especially the European Union have in political détente.