Assessing the economic consequences of EU enlargement

EU enlargement to the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe may profoundly reshape the Union’s economic and fiscal architecture. The analysis distinguishes between a “consolidation” scenario, limited to the Western Balkans, with limited impact and opportunities for productive integration, and a “global transformation” scenario including Ukraine. In the latter case, significant pressure would arise on redistributive policies, particularly Cohesion Policy and the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The paper by Federico Baccini argues that enlargement costs should be seen as a long-term strategic investment, enhancing competitiveness, economic sovereignty and resilience, provided that allocation mechanisms are reformed and private investment is effectively mobilised.