Armenia and Türkiye: Bilateral relations with three actors

March 21, 2026, Yerevan International Airport. A Turkish Airlines aircraft lands, inaugurating the first regular flight between Türkiye and Armenia. While seemingly routine, this event reflects a gradual shift in regional dynamics and the cautious reopening of ties frozen for decades.

The Brief traces the evolution of Armenia-Türkiye relations from the 1990s to the present, highlighting how historical disputes and the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict have shaped bilateral dynamics. Particular attention is devoted to the post-2020 phase, marked by a more pragmatic normalization process based on incremental confidence-building measures and renewed economic engagement.

At the same time, normalization remains embedded in a broader regional framework in which Azerbaijan plays a key role. The analysis raises questions about the pace and sustainability of this rapprochement and Türkiye’s positioning in the South Caucasus, especially in relation to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.